Youth bulge or rather the predominance of young people in the society is a term used to describe a democratic pattern that comprises of young adults as well as children. Youth bulge is a crucial concept useful in understanding age-cohorts and emerging patterns. In other words, age-cohorts have a shared reality that is based on the political as well as economic conditions they have been raised in or subjected to. For instance, if the youth are subjected to an environment with resource scarcity, an issue mostly experienced in developing nations, it easy to assert that there will be violent conflict in this society. Scholars argue that youths, in most cases young men, carry out most acts of violence. This fact is best explained through the lens of what is currently happening in Afghanistan where the growing youth population has paralyzed the nation in a great deal, both economically and politically. According to social scientists, the demographic profile in this case youth bulge has the potential to destabilize nations in the developing world. In this paper, we examine the concept of youth bulge in aspects of violent conflict and a measure of its relativity of abundance in Afghanistan. We theoretically argue that violent conflict in Afghanistan is as result of youth bulge which has led to the economic conditions experienced today in this particular region. Possible implications and measures to curb youth bulge are further suggested.

According to peace and conflict studies, youth bulge discourse is often evaluated as a correlation that is mediated by various intervening variables. The fact signifies that the youth bulge increases the risk of violent conflict, risks mediated by two factors; social agency and structural conditions for young people. Looking at structural conditions or violence, these are processes that impact patterned systems of exclusion as well as inequality. In other words, the systems propagate marginalization, inequality, exclusion, and injustices that are crucial factors which affects the potential of performance for certain groups of people such as the youth. In most cases, these systems are socially constructed (LifePeace & INSTITUTE, paragraph 3). The claim that youth bulge leads to violent conflict has had a long history with the issue receiving great attention over resource scarcity as well as security implications arising from population pressure. Youth bulge, for instance, has become a significant explanation for the political violence being experienced in Egypt. In 2013, young people (15-29) increased by number in Egypt in the sense of reaching 24.3 million. The increase in the number occurs where the Egypt society had already registered 54% of its population being individuals under the age of 24. According to Henrik Urdal and Jack Goldstone, this fact is evident to increase political violence conflict risk for any given country not only Egypt (IDS Bulletin, paragraph 5). According to Urdal, the presence of youth bulges in any nation increases the motives as well as potential for political violence, most especially if these individuals are associated with issues such as a quasi-democratic system, high levels of youth unemployment and a high ratio of dependency. The character of political violence experienced in Egypt conforms to Tsegaye Tegenu’s concept which asserts that youth bulge entails the age group of between 15-29 (IDS Bulletin paragraph 7). The fact is so since the study shows that Egypt comprises of 29% of youths of the nation’s general population.

The relatively high population of youths in Egypt had significantly fueled youth movements in recent years as research shows, a case that has further impacted on the increased movements that have resorted to violence, for instance, the combat generation. In violent clashes experienced in February 2011 to June 2013 in Egypt, research shows that 80% of the most injured population was those aged between 15 to 29, while those who died, in this case, 70% belonged to this same cohort ( IDS Bulletin paragraph 9). Population Action International (PAI), an advocacy group based in Washington provides that youth bulge is an issue affecting those nations with a rapid growth of young population which is mostly influenced by the rampant problem of unemployment. Thus in most cases ending up being susceptible to recruitment into terrorist or violent groups as in the case of Egypt(Council on Foreign Relations, Paragraph 1). Developing nations mostly experience a “demographic transition.” In this case, young adults, due to the issue of unemployment, leads to these individuals prolonging their dependency on parents, a fact that diminishes their self-esteem as well as fuel their frustrations. As a result, the youths embark on seeking social, economic and political advancements through extralegal means. According to the report by PAI, between the years of 1970 and 1999, most of the civil conflicts (80%)  that took place in various countries, 60% of the perpetrators were those aged under 30 (Council on Foreign Relations, paragraph 4). Recently, many developing nations such as Afghanistan, Nigeria, Middle East, Egypt among others are experiencing social, and political violence. Demographers have however argued that youth bulges do not explain civil conflicts witnessed today (corruption, poverty, poor political institutions, and ethno-religious roles. But at the same time, they do not rule out the coincidence towards the social unrest experienced in nations with a large population of youths.

Causes of Youth Bulge in increasing the likelihood of violent conflicts

Unemployment and disempowered

The fact that most youths are unemployed makes them feel they have little or no power. This issue appears that as much as societies are becoming technologically sophisticated, it implies that cyber warfare is becoming the foundational pathways for most youths to rebel. Young adults are tired of the baby boomers who continue to stay in powers leaving no opportunity for them. In this case, youths tend to be more disruptive and embark on violent conflicts to fight for their rights (Sohail p. 28). Study shows that Africa’s population is relatively increasing, approximated to reach 2.4 billion in the year 2050. This is a number that will be double the current population. Further research shows that by this year, (2050), it is estimated that 40% of the general population will be those individuals aged between 15 to 25 years (60%) (Minas, paragraph 6).

Virtual retreat

With the fact that most leaders not only in Egypt but other developing nations, leadership is mostly perpetuated by older people who are assumed to be wise in nature. However, as this fact may appear to carry some truth, youth are denied their fair share of political power, and hence they end up fighting to form their own artificial worlds as they retreat to the altered reality (Sohail p. 29).  According to the survey by World Bank in 2011, approximately 40% of individuals who engaged in rebel movements reveals that unemployment factor was the primary cause of their involvement with insurgent movements

Measures to curb Youth bulge in increasing violent conflict

Political and social structures giving the youth an opportunity to raise their demands

In most cases, young adults are denied a platform to air out their needs and concerns, and as a result, they chose to react violently. The violence just like the situation in Egypt characterizes the instability and disintegration. According to research, objective deprivation is what causes youth bulge to stir up violent conflict. Lack of being represented in matters affecting the nation as well as themselves, makes this group to experience relative deprivation. They begin looking at a gap existing between situations they believe they perceive to deserve as well their achievement. To curb this issue, therefore, it is the role of the government to create as many platforms as possible to ensure that the youth are represented as well as put in consideration in all plans that need to be accomplished.

Creating employment opportunities

Job creation for the youth is vital not only in Egypt but in other developing nations as well. This helps this group to keep pace with the growing population as this will reduce the issue of idleness among the youth. The fact that most of them engage in violent conflicts is because they are pressured by the job market which is evident to give much of their attention on baby boomers (Council on Foreign Relations, paragraph 12). In this case, if adequate job opportunities will be created, then most of the youths will have little time to engage in unruly behaviors.

Improving family planning accessibility measures

Better access to effective family planning methods can be beneficial. For instance, research shows that in 1979, birth rates in Iran dropped when contraception programs were made available to every woman. Furthermore, educating women on the need to control family sizes reduces fertility rates, hence controlling youth bulge (Council on Foreign Relations, paragraph 13).

Conclusion

Youth bulge on its own cannot encourage youth to commit violent conflict. In other words, the issue of violent conflict arises from a lack of adequate structural conditioning youth are granted. Structural conditioning is crucial for transitioning from a child to an adult. When the youth are denied education, good lifestyle, education, citizenship, and family formation, they end up engaging in violent conflict. Therefore, it is the role of any government not only Egypt to embrace youth bulge as an opportunity and resource helpful in developing the right policies.

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